Digital TV Research has created subscriber projections by territory for the US-listed streaming service. Its forecasts (see table) for end of 2014 are slightly ahead of those of the company itself, which, at it last results announcement in October, said it would have 16.5 million paying customers by year-end.
Simon Murray, principal analyst at UK-based Digital TV Research, said that the company had upwardly revised its figures to reflect strong growth in Latin America and weak take-up in the UK. “We have made several adjustments to our previous estimates,” he said.
Murray added: “Subscriber numbers are now a lot higher in Latin America – and a little higher in Canada. Subscriber numbers are now a lot lower in the UK – and a little lower in the Nordic countries.”
By region, Europe accounts for about 6 million of Netflix’s international subs base, Latin America 4.8 million and Canada 3.5 million. Netflix rarely breaks out subscriber numbers by territory, but did recently note it had surpassed five million customers in Latin America, including those paying and those taking a free trial.
Within the region, Brazil had the most paying Netflix subs by the end of the third quarter, according to Digital TV Research, with 2.2 million. Mexico was at 1.2 million.
In Europe, the UK and Ireland will have 3.04 million customers by next January, the research house said. By October, the Nordic territories had two million subs.
Netflix launched in a swathe of European territories this and Digital TV Research is also tracking its progress with the new roll outs. Soon after launch in Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg and Switzerland it had, cumulatively, about 320,000 customers.
Digital TV Research said that Netlfix has 1.5 million customers on a free trial internationally.